NJ Winter Storm — Feb 13-14

Analysis

A powerful nor'easter will track along the Mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing a significant winter storm to New Jersey. The storm's track will set up a sharp rain/snow line running diagonally across the state. Northwest Interior will bear the brunt — 8-12" of snow is likely in Sussex and Warren counties where cold air is locked in at elevation. Snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour are possible during the overnight hours with considerable blowing and drifting. Travel will become impossible by late Wednesday night. North Jersey picks up 4-7" with heavier amounts in the western suburbs and foothills. The snow line will be sharp — areas just 10 miles apart could see dramatically different totals depending on their position relative to the thermal boundary. Central Jersey is the transition zone. Expect 2-4" with rain mixing in closer to the coast. The rain/snow line will shift back and forth through the night, making exact totals uncertain. South Jersey and the Shore will see predominantly rain from this system. The Shore faces the additional threat of 45-55 mph wind gusts and minor coastal flooding during Thursday morning's high tide cycle. Tidal departures of 1.5-2.5 feet above normal are expected. By Friday, the storm pulls away and high pressure builds in for a calmer weekend.

Sources: GFS, NAM, Euro, HRRR + regional observations