Free verification tool

Check Your Prediction Accuracy with Real NWS Data

You published a snow forecast. It snowed. But how close were you? ForecasterHQ pulls real NWS station observations and compares them directly to your published forecast regions.

The problem every indie forecaster faces

Publishing a forecast is the easy part. Actually knowing how accurate it was — consistently, over dozens of events — is a different problem entirely.

Enterprise platforms

ForecastWatch runs thousands of dollars per year and is built for commercial weather companies with dedicated verification teams.

Government tools

NOAA MDL and SPC verification pages evaluate gridded numerical model output, not individual storm writeups.

How the verification tool works

Step 1

Pulls NWS station observations automatically

We query official NWS ASOS, AWOS, and CoCoRaHS station networks for the event window you specified. No manual data entry. No hunting for reports.

Step 2

Maps observations to your forecast zones

Each station reading gets matched to the forecast region it falls within. If you called 6–10 inches for a polygon and five stations reported in that polygon, you’ll see all five.

Step 3

Scores your forecast

We calculate a hit rate — what percentage of stations fell within your predicted range — with a bias indicator showing whether you were systematically too high or too low.

Step 4

Builds your historical track record

Every verified event rolls up into your forecaster profile. Over time, you accumulate a transparent track record — something no other platform offers for independent forecasters.

What this looks like in practice

Say you forecast a nor'easter hitting the Mid-Atlantic. You publish a map with three zones: Heavy (8–14") through Eastern PA, Moderate (4–8") into Delaware, Light (1–4") on the Eastern Shore.

Philadelphia PHL: 9.2" observed

Heavy zone called 8–14" — Hit

Trenton TEB: 6.1" observed

Heavy zone called 8–14" — Miss (light)

Atlantic City ACY: 4.3" observed

Moderate zone called 4–8" — Hit

Over multiple events, if that pattern repeats, it shows up in your bias indicators — and you learn something actionable about where your guidance tends to push too aggressively.

Your track record, publicly

Anyone can say they're a good forecaster. ForecasterHQ lets you show it. Your verification history is part of your public profile. Followers can see your hit rate on winter storms over the past season.

That credibility compounds. The forecasters who build durable, monetizable audiences are the ones who can demonstrate accuracy consistently — not just hype the next big storm.

How ForecasterHQ compares

	ForecasterHQ	ForecastWatch	ForecastAdvisor	Manual
Built for indie forecasters
Automatic data pull
Compares your forecasts
Public track record profile
Price	Free	$thousands/yr	Free (different purpose)	Free (hours of work)

Built for the NWS verification standard

Our methodology follows the WMO and NWS standard verification frameworks — the same approaches used to evaluate official NWS forecasts. Your track record on ForecasterHQ is built on defensible methodology.

Start publishing — it's free

Verification works with any storm forecast you publish on ForecasterHQ. The more forecasts you publish, the more data you accumulate.

See a live example|How verification works|The forecasting platform

ForecasterHQ is building tools for independent weather forecasters to publish, verify, and build audiences around their forecasts. The verification feature is free.