Lake Ontario Lake Effect — Oswego County, January 28-30, 2026

A Canadian clipper will scour the Great Lakes late Tuesday, leaving a tight 15-25 knot WNW flow over Lake Ontario. BUFKIT soundings show good lake-to-shore fetch depth and a capping inversion near 700mb that will anchor the primary snowband along the Oswego County axis. Heaviest totals expected in a 10-20 mile-wide band targeting Fulton and northern Oswego County (KFZY corridor) with 8-16 inches over 42 hours. The southern fringe reaches into greater Syracuse with 3-7 inches as the band oscillates. Jefferson County gets a secondary band in the 4-10" range from the northern track. Conservative ranges — not calling for the 2+ foot totals a locked multi-day setup can produce.

Based on BUFKIT KBUF sounding analysis + NAM-NEST