Lake Ontario Lake Effect - Oswego County, January 28-30, 2026

Jeffrey Gluck · Published Mar 27, 4:32 PM EDT · Winter storm forecast · Jan 28-30

This forecast ended Jan 30. Jeffrey Gluck’s latest →2 regions as Jeffrey Gluck drew them, valid Jan 28-30 · 19 observations since.

Regions19 observations

Oswego County (Core Band)8-16"

Confidence: high

See timing

Greater Syracuse3-7"

Confidence: medium

See timing

Jeffrey Gluck’s note

A Canadian clipper will scour the Great Lakes late Tuesday, leaving a tight 15-25 knot WNW flow over Lake Ontario. BUFKIT soundings show good lake-to-shore fetch depth and a capping inversion near 700mb that will anchor the primary snowband along the Oswego County axis. Heaviest totals expected in a 10-20 mile-wide band targeting Fulton and northern Oswego County (KFZY corridor) with 8-16 inches over 42 hours. The southern fringe reaches into greater Syracuse with 3-7 inches as the band oscillates. Jefferson County gets a secondary band in the 4-10" range from the northern track. Conservative ranges - not calling for the 2+ foot totals a locked multi-day setup can produce.

Based on BUFKIT KBUF sounding analysis + NAM-NEST.

Regions and ranges are Jeffrey Gluck’s own. Observations from National Weather Service stations and Iowa Environmental Mesonet local storm reports. Map: US Census county outlines, Natural Earth coastline.