Hurricane tracker

2 active storms: Rachel, Nolo · 2 more areas being watched · From the National Hurricane Center

The Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins with the 2 areas NHC is watching, shaded by the seven-day chance of formation, and the active storms with their forecast track.

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The tropical Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean in true colour from the GOES-East satellite, the latest image NOAA has published — The same water from orbit: the tropical Atlantic in true colour from GOES-East, NOAA’s latest image, with its time stamped along the foot. Where the outlook above shades a region, this is what is actually there.

2 active storms

This is the climatological peak of the Atlantic season - early September is when activity is historically highest.

This is a relay, not a warning system. Everything here comes from the National Hurricane Center and can lag. For anything affecting your safety, use hurricanes.gov and local officials.

Areas to watch

The National Hurricane Center is tracking 2 areas that could develop.

Atlantic

issued 8:00 PM EDT, Fri Oct 2

Subtropical West-Central Atlantic (Remnants of Fay)low chance over 7 days
48 hours0%
7 days0%
Showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of former Tropical Storm Fay located several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda have become less organized since yesterday. No further development is expected while it moves north-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph to the east of Bermuda.

Eastern Pacific

issued 5:00 PM PDT, Fri Oct 2

South of Southern Mexicohigh chance over 7 days
48 hours0%
7 days80%
An area of low pressure is forecast to form late this weekend or early next week south of the southern coast of Mexico. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of next week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.

The season so far

Every storm we archived this year, for the days we tracked it, coloured by how strong it got. This is the climatological peak of the Atlantic season - early September is when activity is historically highest.

DepressionTropical stormCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5

How storms are classified

The Saffir-Simpson scale rates a hurricane on sustained wind speed alone. It says nothing about storm surge, rainfall or flooding, which is why a Category 1 can still be the deadliest thing to hit a coastline in a decade.

DepressionUp to 38 mphOrganised circulation, no name yet.
Tropical storm39-73 mphGets a name. Damaging rain and gusts.
Cat 174-95 mphSome damage to roofs, siding and trees.
Cat 296-110 mphMajor roof and siding damage; near-total power loss likely.
Cat 3111-129 mphMajor hurricane. Devastating damage.
Cat 4130-156 mphCatastrophic damage; most of the area uninhabitable for weeks.
Cat 5157+ mphCatastrophic. A high percentage of framed homes destroyed.

Why we show the advisory numbers

Most trackers redraw the forecast cone as a picture. The cone is a statement about uncertainty - it contains the storm centre about two thirds of the time, and it says nothing about where the damage reaches, which is routinely far outside it.

So we publish the advisory as issued: projected position and intensity at each lead time, with the timestamp it was made. Those are dated, checkable claims. We archive every one, which means that after a season we can say how close the 48-hour calls actually landed rather than only how confident they looked at the time.

More on tropical forecasting

What the NHC cone actually means How to forecast a hurricane track Forecasting rapid intensification Storm surge, explained Storm reports

Sources: National Hurricane Center advisories and Tropical Weather Outlook (text and the graphical outlook from NOAA’s tropical map service). Coastline from Natural Earth. The season strip is our own archive of the advisories, kept since August 2026.