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Vance

Hurricane forecast

Tropical Storm Vance

Mark Miller · Published Oct 26, 4:30 PM EDT · 65 mph when this was written · advisory 21

This is a relay, not a warning system. Everything here comes from the National Hurricane Center and can lag. For anything affecting your safety, use hurricanes.gov and local officials.

landfall window: Mazatlan to sanola
Cat 4-5Cat 3Cat 1-2Tropical stormDepressionForecast positions as issued - not a cone
NHC's forecast track as of advisory 21, with Mark Miller's landfall window on it.

Landfall Fri 4 PM to Sat 4 PM ET, Mazatlan to sanola - likely

As a tropical depression.

Softer than NHC's track

Mark Miller’s note

Week shear and jet stream brings turn to northeast in time continues to weaken slowly.

What NHC's track said when this was written

Peaks as a tropical storm (65 mph)

7 forecast positions. The advisory states no landfall; the window and the place are the forecaster’s own, drawn on the track in pink.

Advisory as of Mon, Oct 26, 4:30 PM EDT. Track and intensity from the National Hurricane Center. The tracker →