Tropical Storm Isaias
Atlantic basin · 50 mph sustained · moving ENE at 8 kt · advisory 4 · Wed, Oct 7, 18:00 UTC
Forecaster? Publish your edition ->
Right now
- Sustained winds
- 50 mph
- 45 kt
- Pressure
- 997 mb
- Position
- 22.6N 93.4W
- Moving
- ENE 8 kt
This is a relay, not a warning system. Everything here comes from the National Hurricane Center and can lag. For anything affecting your safety, use hurricanes.gov and local officials.
The advisory, as issued
The National Hurricane Center’s projected position and intensity at each lead time, exactly as issued in advisory 4.
| Valid (UTC) | Lead | Position | Winds | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed, Oct 7, 15:00 | now | 22.4N 93.6W | 45 mph (40 kt) | Tropical Storm |
| Thu, Oct 8, 00:00 | +9h | 22.7N 92.4W | 60 mph (50 kt) | Tropical Storm |
| Thu, Oct 8, 12:00 | +21h | 23.4N 90.8W | 75 mph (65 kt) | Category 1 |
| Fri, Oct 9, 00:00 | +33h | 24.6N 89.2W | 90 mph (80 kt) | Category 1 |
| Fri, Oct 9, 12:00 | +45h | 26.6N 88.1W | 110 mph (95 kt) | Category 2 |
| Sat, Oct 10, 00:00 | +57h | 29.2N 87.5W | 105 mph (90 kt) | Category 2 |
| Sat, Oct 10, 12:00 | +69h | 32.2N 87.6W | 50 mph (45 kt) | Tropical Storm |
Lead times are measured from the advisory’s observed position, so they are not round numbers.
Where Isaias sits on the scale
Reading this forecast honestly
These are the centre positions the NHC expects. The average track error at 48 hours is on the order of 60-70 nautical miles, and intensity is forecast less well than track - rapid intensification in particular remains hard to call. A storm arriving 100 miles from the projected point is an ordinary outcome, not a failure.
The centre line also is not the hazard. Damaging wind, rain and surge extend well away from it, frequently on one side more than the other. Never plan around the line.
We archive every advisory as it is issued, which means the earlier ones can already be checked against where Isaias actually went. See how accurate the forecasts have been.
Source: National Hurricane Center forecast/advisory for Isaias. Coastline from Natural Earth.