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Tropical Storm Trudy

Eastern Pacific basin · 60 mph sustained · moving W at 6 kt · advisory 24 · Mon, Oct 19, 09:00 UTC

The National Hurricane Center’s forecast positions for Trudy, joined in order, coloured by intensity. Not a cone - the centre line, as issued in advisory 24. NHC does not expect Trudy to strengthen beyond its current 60 mph.

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DepressionTropical stormCat 4now+24h+48h4080120160
Forecast sustained wind at each lead time, against the Saffir-Simpson bands.

Right now

Sustained winds
60 mph
50 kt
Pressure
999 mb
Position
19.7N 108.0W
Moving
W 6 kt

This is a relay, not a warning system. Everything here comes from the National Hurricane Center and can lag. For anything affecting your safety, use hurricanes.gov and local officials.

The advisory, as issued

The National Hurricane Center’s projected position and intensity at each lead time, exactly as issued in advisory 24.

Valid (UTC)LeadPositionWindsStrength
Mon, Oct 19, 09:00now19.7N 108.0W60 mph (50 kt)Tropical Storm
Mon, Oct 19, 18:00+9h19.6N 108.4W45 mph (40 kt)Tropical Storm
Tue, Oct 20, 06:00+21h19.6N 109.0W40 mph (35 kt)Tropical Storm
Tue, Oct 20, 18:00+33h19.8N 109.7W35 mph (30 kt)Tropical Depression
Wed, Oct 21, 06:00+45h20.2N 110.1W30 mph (25 kt)Tropical Depression
Wed, Oct 21, 18:00+57h20.7N 110.6W25 mph (20 kt)Tropical Depression

Lead times are measured from the advisory’s observed position, so they are not round numbers.

Where Trudy sits on the scale

Depression0Tropical storm407595110130Cat 5160180+Trudy now, 60 mph

Reading this forecast honestly

These are the centre positions the NHC expects. The average track error at 48 hours is on the order of 60-70 nautical miles, and intensity is forecast less well than track - rapid intensification in particular remains hard to call. A storm arriving 100 miles from the projected point is an ordinary outcome, not a failure.

The centre line also is not the hazard. Damaging wind, rain and surge extend well away from it, frequently on one side more than the other. Never plan around the line.

We archive every advisory as it is issued, which means the earlier ones can already be checked against where Trudy actually went. See how accurate the forecasts have been.

Source: National Hurricane Center forecast/advisory for Trudy. Coastline from Natural Earth.